Siri can help you both with the consulting end of things as well as the trading Thank You mr. Michael Siri for joining me on looking at the markets today well thank you David I look forward to dealing with you yes like about talking the commodity market with you awesome you know so many people have traded stocks maybe they got an e trade accounts and they started trading stocks maybe they even took a step further into options but commodities and the commodities commodities futures markets that's a little scary for some people do you believe that trading commodities is something that a retail trader can get into oh absolutely no question about it never remember a lot of stocks or commodity price driven a lot of oil companies buy a lot of stock companies so some of the fun why a stalkers going up or down is because the commodity is going up or down what you have to do in commodities and just like you have to do in stocks is you have to get out of the losers because you will have losers it's just a mathematical certainty so you have to manage the risk and my rule of risk is on any given trade you risk 2% of your account balance and that's it so if we have a hundred thousand dollar account you risk $2,000 on that trade that's it so you're not losing 20 grand 50 grand the worst-case scenario is $2,000 we're talking about small position sizing here which for me is a cornerstone of trading especially if you want to be in this for the long run if you don't want to block your account okay we're basically dealing with one contract maybe two it's not like in stocks where you buy 100 shares or 500 shares in futures you might only have one or two contracts because of the leverage for example if you buy one contract to soybeans you are controlling 5,000 bushels yeah so you know so you think only one can't make any money yes you can and you also have to remember you might have three or four different trades on it once all risking $2,000 you might have a corn a coffee a sugar be risking $2,000 on each one interesting so let me ask you this if somebody wants to get into the commodities markets I'm going to guess that's you know just because you like Starbucks coffee that's probably not not enough to start trading coffee beans immediately okay or just because you like candy that's not enough to start trading trading sugar futures so yet what is yet between grains metals oil or the SPS the Dow that kind of thing what is a good place to start with as far as trading commodities goes well generally what you want to start looking commodities is really based on technical trends you must be a trend follower the trend is like the old saying David is the trend is your friend you don't want to go counter trend trading just like in the stock market the trend clearly is to the upside so you should be playing it to the upside get involved really what you want to start looking at is charting and look at charts that's the key just like in stocks get some familiarity get some education on how to chart and once you can do that then you start getting involved fundamentals and commodities can change very quickly you could read an article today about how much sugar there is in the world and then in a week from now should it just keeps exploding to the upside and you say well why there's all the sugar because things can change a weather event can change in a matter of days okay so that's where the risk comes in if you're wrong 2% doesn't matter what the fundamentals say you're out but basically what you want to do is start looking at charts identify a number one what is the trend is it higher or lower okay where do you put the stop-loss meaning where is my exit strategy that's those are the first two things you need to do interesting so we're talking about fundamentals are important but you got to look at the charts because yeah yes the fundamentals can change very quickly a lot of commodities are weather based like right now here in the Midwest we are going in we are in planting season but if we start and we have a lot of corn and soybeans right now the prices of soybeans in new lows this week but we get 95 degrees for two weeks this price will explode to the upside because now we're going to have less because it's going to hurt the prompt so that's where technical analysis and that's what they call it technical analysis is very very important makes sense why did it we'll get back to that but I wanted to talk about what's going on here on ciri futures comm which I recommend everybody should visit you've got so much here you've got some free content you've got a blog as well as Mike's coffee shop what the heck is Mike's coffee shop we're a coffee there yeah that's the one thing you can't get but maybe I'll fly Jerome over to your house and send you up for Amazon basically what it is as I write on a daily basis and it also includes talking to me on the phone you can't talk to me in this business no one will talk to you I will sit down with you and talk with you and that's why people like me but I write a lot of comments I give trade recommendations and if I'm not involved in the commodity I'll still give an opinion on what to look for where the key areas but if I am involved in it I'll tell you where to put to stop what the risk is what my thinking is and then like I said talking to me is important I like talking to people especially beginners you need to to sit down and actually get a game plan together especially if you're just starting out but even if you're not starting out you definitely want to be able to get that one-on-one personalized attention which is oh yeah which you are providing I'm looking at the at the products that you have here and you have it looks like you have several levels here going on at different price points which makes the rest but the two most popular ones David are the one-on-one which I charge five thousand dollars for the whole year and and that's unlimited and that also includes the newsletter if you just want the newsletter then it's just $1,250 for the year and you can still talk to me generally the people with the five thousand it's going to be more time-consuming share more comp more complicated generally larger accounts obviously if you're trading the $10,000 account you're not going to pay five thousand dollars right where you're trading a hundred thousand or more five thousand seems like a lot but that's for a whole year it's not a lot and I also see some events here for example webinars trading workshops you offer those as well correct absolutely you know what I'm here for I you know I pride myself on good service or a terrific service and you know I will sit with you for an hour if you want I mean whatever you need need to do I will help you do to try to become successful yeah the one thing I'm very good at is I don't make mistakes and people learn how don't you make mistakes I don't that doesn't mean I don't have losing trades because I do I have many losing trades but but you have to manage it but I don't make mistakes I don't buy the wrong contract month in commodities you have months you have old crop new crop it's more into it so I don't make mistakes I don't have too much too many contracts on I don't too much money I don't make mistakes and that's where I don't over trade I don't add to losers I stay with the basic formula of success and that's why people fail in this business they over trade they add the losers they turn a $5,000 loss into a $30,000 loss they don't know how to accept a loss and move on and that's where I help them you're sticking to your principles and you're not doing anything reckless and no yeah Catholic reservation yeah I'm a robot I do the same thing all the time there are times when I get stopped out of a trade and I lose a thousand dollars or something I'm upset about it but I take the loss and I accept it and I move on and then you'd be surprised a week later if you were still in that thing you could have been down eight grand you know that's why you know you get out and then there are times you get out and then it does go away but you have to you have to trade a formula you can't just second-guess second-guessing is the kiss of death David because in the long run you're going to be wrong by second-guessing once in a while you'll be right but you have to think of this in the long run not not what my account balance is today or tomorrow what's it going to be in five years yeah you got to look at the big picture as well yeah right now can't micromanage every single dollar that's just not the way to do it yeah there are months in the stock market when you lose constantly you know but then there are months will you win constantly you have to look at it and longer look at the people in 2008 2009 who took huge losses but now look at where those people are if they stuck with it they've had tremendous wins yeah tremendous but you have to think down the road not oh my god the markets down again tomorrow get me out no you got to think further and just keep playing the rules want to talk about crude oil you recently wrote an article here it is right there on your web site crude oil hits the four week high okay so you know crude oil went down for a while now it's coming back up around right what 48 dollars a barrel or so well I think it hit 50 recently yeah okay now what it you know where do we go from here now I read the article I just was telling you I'm not involved in crude but I still wrote about it telling you you know what's basically going on now my trading system David as I buy on for week heis and i sell on four we close I want to see a trend starting to develop before I get in however look my exit strategy if I'm long the contract as I put my stop at the 10-day low that's my exit strategy but the risk on this one is too high it does not meet my 2% criteria so I'm not involved okay sometimes you will miss a market because the risk is too high I like to take risks of $1,500 or less that's just generally my trading thesis okay but the 10-day low that's where I get out so if you are along this market sometimes I'll say if you are long this is where I would place my stop okay one it's all about maintaining risk of course that's that's huge and crucial and you want to admit sometimes that you're wrong in a trade okay buy something but I'm probably wrong on average I'm probably wrong 70 percent of the time interests 11 if I write 10 articles and there are all 10 recommendations 7 of them will be wrong okay but you say well how can you make money how can you be successful because those 7 we take the losses it's not necessarily always 2% some of them just fizzle out you might lose you know 300 dollars or something that's nothing but the key is the three winners you let them run and you don't get out until you're finally stopped out but that's how you have to do it you add the winners and you never ever add to a loser you accept the loss and that's it but you don't do more contracts don't dollar-cost average in this business that is the kiss of death it's been said let your winners run and cut your losers short I've spoken so many people and that has been told to me over and over and over there's a lot of truth to it absolutely and that's how I train that's how I train yeah and and this is kind of uncharitable but some people say only losers average losers no yeah never add to loser like I said I don't make mistakes I don't add to a loser makes sense to me wanted to talk about some other commodities for example if somebody wants to get into coffee futures okay you wrote that volatility and coffee is big beginning to increase do you look forward to volatility is that something is that when you trade when it's getting volatile well you can trade whenever but you want volatility because that means the prices can really move now in coffee as I write I'm not involved in this but I'm looking at buying it if prices break 137 75 in the July contract that's a four week high and if you do take that trade and that happens we're putting a stop at the 10-day low which is one free zero now that 10-day low will be raised if the price goes up to the next ten-day high but so I'm looking at buying this commodity we could be involved tomorrow if it's up there we're only about 400 points away which is a daily if that just coffee does that in a day interesting do you also trade the indices for example in the few in the futures for example the SPS the Dow that kind of thing yes well we will be involved with the Nasdaq 100 the Dow and the S&P 500 they also have many contracts there which are smaller contracts for smaller accounts but yes that is part of the group as far as fundamentals go is it necessary for example if you're trading coffee futures is it necessary to study the politics of a place like Brazil or something like that which is very will which is very using lately by the way I'm sure as we all know Brazil is and Brazil has some interesting things going on right now do you need to be studying that every day should you be watching the news or is that maybe somebody who doesn't have time for that is that not something you need to be doing III think you got to stay away from the fundamentals you want to just be a Chartist the fundamentals can change the Brazilian real drop 7% Thursday and had sent coffee prices down 500 but then Friday copies up 300 and this Brazilian rial will be forgotten about come Monday's trade so don't get wrapped up in fundamentals they change very quickly we could have a frost down in Brazil and the coffee's exploded to the upside you say well what about the reality it doesn't matter anymore it's old news BH Ardis that's where you need to sit down with me and go over it starts and that's the key it's a successful commodity trading focusing on technicals always a good idea absolutely um real quickly wanted to talk about a very popular topic among my listeners and viewers silver and gold you wrote about how silver went up 40 cents this week this is a blog posting from May 19th I'm looking at silver right now just you know maybe not the futures or commodities you know futures I would probably just buy the ETF with the ticker SLV something like that I don't know if for people who are stackers for people who want the physical stuff is there any advantage to trading silver or gold futures yes the physical stuff to be honest with you I just you know people like to have this gold in their house and this silver in their house I think it's foolish to have any large amounts of money in your house knowing knowing my luck my house would burn down and then I have all the silver gone through why why store and hoard all of this money to pick it robbed it just doesn't make sense when you can buy one futures contract it's in a brokerage up you don't have to worry about theft or some crazy thing happening and you can control much more of it and the problem with owning coins and and this is for people really a get hurt when you buy a coin off of a dealer he's putting their twenty or thirty percent increase on that price that's how he's making the webbing right but then you go and sell that coin guess what you're getting twenty or thirty percent cut because he has to buy it low and sell it high it's basically like a pawnshop if you go and sell it to the pawn guy for a hundred bucks well he's going to try to sell it for 150 right but if you own the futures contract you can liquidate it at a real price you're not you're not getting a retail price on it you're getting what it's actually worth interesting so and instantly to if you want your silver right now you're out at that price you don't have to go to a coin dealer and you know it's worth a hundred but he's only offering you 75 bucks for it well no and the future side if it's worth 100 you're getting a hundred yeah so you don't have to deal the middleman taking them out as much gotcha yeah that's how they make living and there's nothing wrong with that that's how they make a living that's right uh but you cannot make a you will not have a good deal Owen all this silver gold because when you have to sell it you're going to get a haircut on it they're not going to give you the actual price that it's worth that's just a fact I think a lot you know I've interviewed some of the greatest minds in silver and gold oftentimes the argument is that well if you know really bad things happen in the world okay you know if there if there's a you know almost like a Mad Max kind of scenario right having the physical stuff really is where it's at and so maybe they have a different purpose in buying it but I yeah but if you're if you're just trading it if you just go ahead in and get out perhaps natures are the way to go get would you agree yeah oh absolutely and this Mad Max there and trust me if that actually happened I'd still be nervous having a bunch of gold and silver on me I'd be robbed in about two seconds you kidding me it'd be total chaos it would be total pandemonium so no come on if you're actually thinking that's gonna happen and I am you know I just think that's a fool's game right right guys but this way we collapsed in 2008 there was no uh no you know no craziness but no one was fourteen gold and silver right right right true interesting point and then finally and this is the big question I think people would love to know what are you bullish on as far as which which you know commodity products for the rest of 2017 and are there any that you're bearish on well the trends have been shopping in the one thing about commodities we will be sellers we will be bearish on things it's not always buying if something is going down we will be selling okay so it's not like the stocks were generally are always just the buyer in commodities if things are going down we will be a seller now the US dollar has hit a seven-month low in Friday's action that's good for commodity prices and if you read my top art apply right will weak dollar prop commodities hiya if that trend continues and that's why silver was up that's why gold was up that's why oil has been rallying that will continue so I am bullish the commodities you have to remember if you look at a five-year chart on much of this day but we're pretty low good pretty low meaning the the volatility is going to be to the upside not to the downside we're squeezing blood out of a turnip on some of this stuff interesting actionable advice right there that we all need to listen to mr.
Michael Siri can be found at Siri se ery futures com is there a a social media are there any social media sites that you know Twitter that kind I'm on yeah I'm on Facebook and Twitter and Skype and I also have a live chat on my website okay you can just hit the live chat I always I tell I talked to a lot of people some friends there at work they don't want to be on the phone but the will talk that way but yeah Twitter and Skype and Facebook I'm on all of those but go to my website and you know we can always talk as well and it's free it's just part of the service very good sir I've been speaking with mr. Mike Siri who was generous enough to give me some of his time and I've learned so much today about the commodities markets what it's all about what to look at what not to look at and how to get started I hope to see you back here again sometime soon I'm looking at the markets thank you so much mr.
Siri big day today I look forward to working with you call me anytime I'm here to help help any of your customers as well thank you so much appreciate it thank you David thank you for watching please like comment and subscribe and I'll see you next time you .
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